COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-seventh report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2 lineages BQ.1 and XBB and their descendants, which carry several mutations reducing antibody recognition, are the fastest spreading variants in Canada. BQ.1* has risen to a current frequency of ~85% across the country. Case numbers are undergoing only modest fluctuations, reflecting the rise and fall of population-level immunity through infections, vaccinations, and waning. Models project future declines in case numbers over the short term, with the rising tide of XBB.1.5 likely having only a modest impact.