The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on British Columbia and Canada.

The interdisciplinary group, working independently from Government, includes experts in epidemiology, mathematics, and data analysis from UBC, SFU, UVic, and the private sector, with support from the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences.

Recent Posts

COVID Model Projections - November 24, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twelfth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 24, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members.
2021-11-24 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - November 24, 2021
COVID Model Projections - October 27, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their eleventh report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 27, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-10-27 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - October 27, 2021
COVID Model Projections - October 7, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their tenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 7, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-10-07 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - October 7, 2021
COVID Model (Interim) Projections - September 15, 2021
Given the changing COVID-19 situation in BC, the BC COVID Modelling Group has issued an update to their ninth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (September 15, 2021).
2021-09-15 1 min read reports
Slides
COVID Model (Interim) Projections - September 15, 2021
COVID Model Projections - September 1, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their ninth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (September 1, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-09-01 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - September 1, 2021
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Recent Publications

Scientific Papers and Reports

Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Background

In March 2021, a number of regulatory and advisory bodies around the world recommended against using the AstraZeneca …
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Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of …
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Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Importance

An effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will reduce morbidity and mortality and allow substantial relaxation of physical …
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Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Serology tests for SARS-CoV-2 provide a paradigm for estimating the number of individuals who have had infection in the past (including …
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Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
South Africa is currently experiencing a second wave of resurgence in COVID-19 infection. In this modelling study, we use a Bayesian …
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Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
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Recent & Upcoming Talks

Real Time Modelling of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic
I will talk about mathematical modelling reports from around the world for the emerging novel coronavirus epidemic. I will explain the …
2020-03-09
Slides Video

Meet the Team

Researchers

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Caroline Colijn

Canada 150 Chair, SFU

Infectious Disease Modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology, Evolution

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Dan Coombs

Professor, UBC

Infectious disease modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology

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Daniel J. McDonald

Associate Professor of Statistics, University of British Columbia

Machine learning, Risk estimation, Computational approximations, Time series, Applications in economics, biology, chemistry, finance and music

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Dean Karlen

R.M Pearce Professor of Physics, University of Victoria and TRIUMF

Electroweak physics, Neutrino physics, Detector development

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Elisha Are

Postdoctoral Fellow in Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Infectious Disease Modelling, Mathematical Biology

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Eric Cytrynbaum

Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

Bacterial cell division, Microtubule and cellular organization, Wave propagation in excitable media

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Jens von Bergmann

Engineer at MountainMath Software

Data, Analysis, Visualization

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Paul Tupper

Professor of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Applied Mathematics, Stochastic differential equations

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Rob James

evidently.ca

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Sarah "Sally" Otto

Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, UBC

Evolutionary modelling, Infectious Disease Modelling, Biodiversity, Mathematical Biology

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Amin Adibi

Statistical Research Analyst, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Predictive Analytics

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Mohsen Sadatsafavi

Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Medical Decision Making, Predictive Analytics

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Brendon Phillips

Postdoctoral Researcher in Computational Epidemiology

Computational Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Modelling

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Bryn Wiley

Research Assistant in Evolution and Epidemiology

Mathematical and statistical biology, Evolutionary biology

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Cedric Chauve

Professor of Mathematics, SFU

Computational Biology, Pathogens Bioinformatics, Mathematical Biology

Support

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James Colliander

Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

PDE, Harmonic Analysis, Dynamical systems, Interactive Computing

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Ian Allison

PIMS Technology Manager

Computational Methods, Interactive Computing, Technical Support

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