The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on British Columbia and Canada.

The interdisciplinary group, working independently from Government, includes experts in epidemiology, mathematics, and data analysis from UBC, SFU, UVic, and the private sector, with support from the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences.

Recent Posts

COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-seventh report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2 lineages BQ.1 and XBB and their descendants, which carry several mutations reducing antibody recognition, are the fastest spreading variants in Canada. BQ.1* has risen to a current frequency of ~85% across the country. Case numbers are undergoing only modest fluctuations, reflecting the rise and fall of population-level immunity through infections, vaccinations, and waning. Models project future declines in case numbers over the short term, with the rising tide of XBB.1.5 likely having only a modest impact.
COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-sixth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron continues to be dominated by BA.5* variants, particularly descendants like BQ.1* that carry many mutations that reduce antibody recognition. BQ.1* has risen to an estimated current frequency of 50% in BC and in Canada. Nevertheless, case numbers are rising and falling in a manner that depends less on these variants and more on population-level immunity and the waning of this immunity. This is good news, suggesting that population-level immunity is largely protective against BQ.1* as well.
COVID Model Projections - October 5, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fifth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 5th, 2022). The BA.5-driven Omicron wave persists with high rates of infection. The prolonged nature of the BA.5 wave is consistent with waning of immunity from infections and vaccinations early in the year. Future projections predict a rise in cases, even without new variants that are better able to evade immunity. Underreporting of cases is extremely high, with ~100-fold more infections currently than reported cases.
COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fourth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report shows that the Omicron BA.5 wave has peaked across much of Canada. Nevertheless, risks of infection remain high, with infections likely 100-fold more common than reported cases at present.
COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-third report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report focuses on the rising Omicron BA.5 wave, which is now the most frequent variant in BC and Canada.

Recent Publications

Scientific Papers and Reports

Meet the Team



Ailene MacPherson

Assistant Professor

Evolution, Ecology and Epidemiology, Mathematical Biology


Caroline Colijn

Canada 150 Chair, SFU

Infectious Disease Modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology, Evolution


Dan Coombs

Professor, UBC

Infectious disease modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology


Daniel J. McDonald

Associate Professor of Statistics, University of British Columbia

Machine learning, Risk estimation, Computational approximations, Time series, Applications in economics, biology, chemistry, finance and music


Dean Karlen

R.M Pearce Professor of Physics, University of Victoria and TRIUMF

Electroweak physics, Neutrino physics, Detector development


Elisha Are

Postdoctoral Fellow in Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Infectious Disease Modelling, Mathematical Biology


Eric Cytrynbaum

Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

Bacterial cell division, Microtubule and cellular organization, Wave propagation in excitable media


Jens von Bergmann

Engineer at MountainMath Software

Data, Analysis, Visualization


Rob James


Sarah "Sally" Otto

Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, UBC

Evolutionary modelling, Infectious Disease Modelling, Biodiversity, Mathematical Biology


Paul Tupper

Professor of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Applied Mathematics, Stochastic differential equations


Amin Adibi

Statistical Research Analyst, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Predictive Analytics


Mohsen Sadatsafavi

Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Medical Decision Making, Predictive Analytics


Brendon Phillips

Postdoctoral Researcher in Computational Epidemiology

Computational Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Modelling


Bryn Wiley

Research Assistant in Evolution and Epidemiology

Mathematical and statistical biology, Evolutionary biology


Cedric Chauve

Professor of Mathematics, SFU

Computational Biology, Pathogens Bioinformatics, Mathematical Biology



James Colliander

Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

PDE, Harmonic Analysis, Dynamical systems, Interactive Computing


Ian Allison

PIMS Technology Manager

Computational Methods, Interactive Computing, Technical Support