The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on British Columbia and Canada.

The interdisciplinary Group was convened by Caroline Colijn (SFU) and Dan Coombs (UBC) with support from the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences.

Recent Posts

COVID Model Projections - May 14, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their third report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (May 14, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-05-14 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - May 14, 2021
COVID Model Projections - April 29, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their second report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 29, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Sally Otto walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-04-30 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - April 29, 2021
After Vaccination
Please see our full report for more details and simulation results. The only way things can return to normal in BC is if a large portion of our population obtains immunity to the virus, either through infection or through vaccination. Currently a small fraction of British Columbians are immune to COVID-19: approximately 1 in 5 of us have received at least one dose of vaccine, and a much smaller number have had the infection.
2021-04-17 9 min read
View original
After Vaccination
COVID Model Projections - April 14, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their first report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 14, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Sally Otto walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-04-14 1 min read articles, reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - April 14, 2021
High transmission variants: the benefits of being proactive
There has been a lot of discussion about “variants of concern” (VOC) internationally and across Canada. One of the most important concerns is that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and so has caused the COVID pandemic we are all facing today, has found ways to become more transmissible. We recently posted modelling work on what a higher transmission rate would look like for the number of infections. In a place like British Columbia, where cases of our usual type of COVID-19 have held steady in past weeks, a higher transmission rate means that cases would grow.
2021-03-02 6 min read
View original
High transmission variants: the benefits of being proactive
See all posts

Recent Publications

Scientific Papers and Reports

Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Background

In March 2021, a number of regulatory and advisory bodies around the world recommended against using the AstraZeneca …

PDF Cite DOI Github
Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of …
PDF Cite DOI Github
Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Importance

An effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will reduce morbidity and mortality and allow substantial relaxation of physical …

PDF Cite DOI
Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Serology tests for SARS-CoV-2 provide a paradigm for estimating the number of individuals who have had infection in the past (including …
PDF Cite DOI Github
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
South Africa is currently experiencing a second wave of resurgence in COVID-19 infection. In this modelling study, we use a Bayesian …
PDF Cite DOI Github
Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
See all publications

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Real Time Modelling of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic
I will talk about mathematical modelling reports from around the world for the emerging novel coronavirus epidemic. I will explain the …
2020-03-09
Slides Video

Meet the Team

Researchers

Avatar

Caroline Colijn

Canada 150 Chair, SFU

Infectious Disease Modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology, Evolution

Avatar

Dan Coombs

Professor, UBC

Infectious disease modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology

Avatar

Daniel J. McDonald

Associate Professor of Statistics, University of British Columbia

Machine learning, Risk estimation, Computational approximations, Time series, Applications in economics, biology, chemistry, finance and music

Avatar

Dean Karlen

R.M Pearce Professor of Physics, University of Victoria and TRIUMF

Electroweak physics, Neutrino physics, Detector development

Avatar

Elisha Are

Postdoctoral Fellow in Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Infectious Disease Modelling, Mathematical Biology

Avatar

Eric Cytrynbaum

Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

Bacterial cell division, Microtubule and cellular organization, Wave propagation in excitable media

Avatar

Jens von Bergmann

Engineer at MountainMath Software

Data, Analysis, Visualization

Avatar

Paul Tupper

Professor of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Applied Mathematics, Stochastic differential equations

Avatar

Rob James

evidently.ca

Avatar

Sarah "Sally" Otto

Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, UBC

Evolutionary modelling, Infectious Disease Modelling, Biodiversity, Mathematical Biology

Avatar

Amin Adibi

Statistical Research Analyst, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Predictive Analytics

Avatar

Mohsen Sadatsafavi

Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Medical Decision Making, Predictive Analytics

Avatar

Brendon Phillips

Postdoctoral Researcher in Computational Epidemiology

Computational Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Modelling

Avatar

Cedric Chauve

Professor of Mathematics, SFU

Computational Biology, Pathogens Bioinformatics, Mathematical Biology

Support

Avatar

James Colliander

PIMS Director

PDE, Harmonic Analysis, Dynamical systems, Interactive Computing

Avatar

Ian Allison

PIMS Technology Manager

Computational Methods, Interactive Computing, Technical Support

Sponsors

 
 

Popular Topics

"Age-structured effectiveness" "coronavirus" "Covid-19 disease" "Covid-19 vaccine" "COVID19" "incubation" "Mathematical model" "Sars-CoV-2" "serial interval" "transmission" epidemiology invitation reports