The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on British Columbia and Canada.

The interdisciplinary group, working independently from Government, includes experts in epidemiology, mathematics, and data analysis from UBC, SFU, UVic, and the private sector, with support from the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences.

Recent Posts

COVID Model (Interim) Projections - September 15, 2021
Given the changing COVID-19 situation in BC, the BC COVID Modelling Group has issued an update to their ninth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (September 15, 2021).
2021-09-15 1 min read reports
Slides
COVID Model (Interim) Projections - September 15, 2021
COVID Model Projections - September 1, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their ninth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (September 1, 2021), summarizing the state of COVID-19 in the province and modelling projections using the different approaches taken by various team members. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum walks you through these results and highlights the take home messages.
2021-09-01 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - September 1, 2021
COVID Model Projections - August 18, 2021
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their eighth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 18, 2021). For the past 5 weeks, infections throughout BC have been growing exponentially. This report shows that the growth in cases has been steady and it is urgent to reduce transmission and expand vaccination coverage to avoid overwhelming BC’s medical system. In the video accompanying this report, Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum gives a brief presentation highlighting the main points contained in the report.
2021-08-18 1 min read reports
Slides Video
COVID Model Projections - August 18, 2021
An Online Tool to estimate the Vaccination Status of a Group
Vaccination rates are changing globally, making it challenging for organizers to predict vaccination levels for group meetings being planned. We have created a browser app to estimate the numbers of unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, and fully vaccinated people in a group at a future date, based on data from around the world on vaccination rates by location and age group. While most accurate over short time frames, this app provides event organizers a clearer picture of the susceptibility of their participants to COVID-19.
2021-08-16 2 min read
Shiny app
An Online Tool to estimate the Vaccination Status of a Group
COVID-19 projections for Alberta's 4th wave
On August 13th the Government of Alberta announced that it would keep in place current levels of COVID-19 restrictions. Earlier, there had been plans to lift some control measures on August 16th, with planned changes including removing mask mandates, changes to COVID-19 testing and contact tracing, and removing mandatory isolation for those testing positive. The argument had been that the current level of vaccination was sufficient and Alberta could now make the transition to managing COVID-19 as an endemic disease. However, current measures will now remain in place. Increases in ICU numbers above what was expected, and the US experience with COVID-19 in children, were given as reasons for pausing the move to the next phase until September 27. Meanwhile, vaccination continues in Alberta, with nearly 10,000 doses being administered per day.
2021-08-13 11 min read
COVID-19 projections for Alberta's 4th wave
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Recent Publications

Scientific Papers and Reports

Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Background

In March 2021, a number of regulatory and advisory bodies around the world recommended against using the AstraZeneca …
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Vaccination of Front-Line Workers with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine: Benefits in the Face of Increased Risk for Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenia
Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of …
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Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities
Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Importance

An effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will reduce morbidity and mortality and allow substantial relaxation of physical …
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Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Serology tests for SARS-CoV-2 provide a paradigm for estimating the number of individuals who have had infection in the past (including …
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Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through integration of serology and incidence data
Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
South Africa is currently experiencing a second wave of resurgence in COVID-19 infection. In this modelling study, we use a Bayesian …
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Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown
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Recent & Upcoming Talks

Real Time Modelling of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic
I will talk about mathematical modelling reports from around the world for the emerging novel coronavirus epidemic. I will explain the …
2020-03-09
Slides Video

Meet the Team

Researchers

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Caroline Colijn

Canada 150 Chair, SFU

Infectious Disease Modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology, Evolution

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Dan Coombs

Professor, UBC

Infectious disease modelling, Computational techniques, Mathematical Biology

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Daniel J. McDonald

Associate Professor of Statistics, University of British Columbia

Machine learning, Risk estimation, Computational approximations, Time series, Applications in economics, biology, chemistry, finance and music

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Dean Karlen

R.M Pearce Professor of Physics, University of Victoria and TRIUMF

Electroweak physics, Neutrino physics, Detector development

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Elisha Are

Postdoctoral Fellow in Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Infectious Disease Modelling, Mathematical Biology

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Eric Cytrynbaum

Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

Bacterial cell division, Microtubule and cellular organization, Wave propagation in excitable media

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Jens von Bergmann

Engineer at MountainMath Software

Data, Analysis, Visualization

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Paul Tupper

Professor of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Applied Mathematics, Stochastic differential equations

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Rob James

evidently.ca

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Sarah "Sally" Otto

Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, UBC

Evolutionary modelling, Infectious Disease Modelling, Biodiversity, Mathematical Biology

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Amin Adibi

Statistical Research Analyst, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Predictive Analytics

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Mohsen Sadatsafavi

Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Medical Decision Making, Predictive Analytics

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Brendon Phillips

Postdoctoral Researcher in Computational Epidemiology

Computational Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Modelling

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Bryn Wiley

Research Assistant in Evolution and Epidemiology

Mathematical and statistical biology, Evolutionary biology

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Cedric Chauve

Professor of Mathematics, SFU

Computational Biology, Pathogens Bioinformatics, Mathematical Biology

Support

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James Colliander

Professor of Mathematics, University of British Columbia

PDE, Harmonic Analysis, Dynamical systems, Interactive Computing

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Ian Allison

PIMS Technology Manager

Computational Methods, Interactive Computing, Technical Support

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