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The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-seventh
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2 lineages BQ.1
and XBB and their descendants, which carry several mutations reducing antibody
recognition, are the fastest spreading variants in Canada. BQ.1* has risen to
a current frequency of ~85% across the country. Case numbers are undergoing
only modest fluctuations, reflecting the rise and fall of population-level
immunity through infections, vaccinations, and waning. Models project future
declines in case numbers over the short term, with the rising tide of XBB.1.5
likely having only a modest impact.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-sixth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron continues to be
dominated by BA.5* variants, particularly descendants like BQ.1* that carry
many mutations that reduce antibody recognition. BQ.1* has risen to an
estimated current frequency of 50% in BC and in Canada. Nevertheless, case
numbers are rising and falling in a manner that depends less on these variants
and more on population-level immunity and the waning of this immunity. This is
good news, suggesting that population-level immunity is largely protective
against BQ.1* as well.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fifth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 5th, 2022). The BA.5-driven Omicron wave
persists with high rates of infection. The prolonged nature of the BA.5 wave is
consistent with waning of immunity from infections and vaccinations early in the
year. Future projections predict a rise in cases, even without new variants that
are better able to evade immunity. Underreporting of cases is extremely high,
with ~100-fold more infections currently than reported cases.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fourth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report shows that the Omicron BA.5 wave has peaked across much of Canada. Nevertheless, risks of infection remain high, with infections likely 100-fold more common than reported cases at present.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-third
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report focuses on the
rising Omicron BA.5 wave, which is now the most frequent variant in BC and Canada.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-second
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (May 18th, 2022). This report focuses on the
ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave, which appears to have peaked in BC and elsewhere in
Canada, and examines data for new variants.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-first
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 27th, 2022). This report focuses on the
ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave and addresses the question of when it will peak and
how big its impact will be.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twentieth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 6th, 2022). This report focuses on the
Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and is now causing an
uptick in cases and hospitalizations, beginning a second Omicron wave in BC.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their nineteenth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (March 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the
Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and now accounts
for ~50% of infections in Canada. Nevertheless, numbers of BA.2 are roughly
steady at the moment.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their eighteenth
report on the status of
COVID-19 in British Columbia (February 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the
Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully
vaccinated. UPDATED: Information about the spread of BA.2 in Alberta has been removed because samples were first typed by PCR and BA.2 preferentially sequenced (causing publicly available data to overestimate the current frequency of BA.2).
