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COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fourth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report shows that the Omicron BA.5 wave has peaked across much of Canada. Nevertheless, risks of infection remain high, with infections likely 100-fold more common than reported cases at present.
COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-third report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report focuses on the rising Omicron BA.5 wave, which is now the most frequent variant in BC and Canada.
COVID Model Projections - May 18, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-second report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (May 18th, 2022). This report focuses on the ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave, which appears to have peaked in BC and elsewhere in Canada, and examines data for new variants.
COVID Model Projections - April 27, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-first report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 27th, 2022). This report focuses on the ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave and addresses the question of when it will peak and how big its impact will be.
COVID Model Projections - April 6, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twentieth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 6th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and is now causing an uptick in cases and hospitalizations, beginning a second Omicron wave in BC.
COVID Model Projections - March 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their nineteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (March 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and now accounts for ~50% of infections in Canada. Nevertheless, numbers of BA.2 are roughly steady at the moment.
COVID Model Projections - February 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their eighteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (February 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully vaccinated. UPDATED: Information about the spread of BA.2 in Alberta has been removed because samples were first typed by PCR and BA.2 preferentially sequenced (causing publicly available data to overestimate the current frequency of BA.2).
COVID Model Projections - February 4, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their seventeenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (February 4th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully vaccinated.
COVID Model Projections - January 19, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their sixteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 19th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully vaccinated. Erratum: Slide #17 was corrected (January 25th), because the wrong graph was originally included on the right for Scenario #2 (with a mean hospital stay of 12 days rather than 6 days, as stated); the conclusions remain unaffected.
COVID Model Projections - January 6, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their fifteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 6th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully vaccinated.