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COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-seventh report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2 lineages BQ.1 and XBB and their descendants, which carry several mutations reducing antibody recognition, are the fastest spreading variants in Canada. BQ.1* has risen to a current frequency of ~85% across the country. Case numbers are undergoing only modest fluctuations, reflecting the rise and fall of population-level immunity through infections, vaccinations, and waning. Models project future declines in case numbers over the short term, with the rising tide of XBB.1.5 likely having only a modest impact.
COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-sixth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron continues to be dominated by BA.5* variants, particularly descendants like BQ.1* that carry many mutations that reduce antibody recognition. BQ.1* has risen to an estimated current frequency of 50% in BC and in Canada. Nevertheless, case numbers are rising and falling in a manner that depends less on these variants and more on population-level immunity and the waning of this immunity. This is good news, suggesting that population-level immunity is largely protective against BQ.1* as well.
COVID Model Projections - October 5, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fifth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 5th, 2022). The BA.5-driven Omicron wave persists with high rates of infection. The prolonged nature of the BA.5 wave is consistent with waning of immunity from infections and vaccinations early in the year. Future projections predict a rise in cases, even without new variants that are better able to evade immunity. Underreporting of cases is extremely high, with ~100-fold more infections currently than reported cases.
COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fourth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report shows that the Omicron BA.5 wave has peaked across much of Canada. Nevertheless, risks of infection remain high, with infections likely 100-fold more common than reported cases at present.
COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-third report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report focuses on the rising Omicron BA.5 wave, which is now the most frequent variant in BC and Canada.
COVID Model Projections - May 18, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-second report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (May 18th, 2022). This report focuses on the ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave, which appears to have peaked in BC and elsewhere in Canada, and examines data for new variants.
COVID Model Projections - April 27, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-first report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 27th, 2022). This report focuses on the ongoing Omicron BA.2 wave and addresses the question of when it will peak and how big its impact will be.
COVID Model Projections - April 6, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twentieth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 6th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and is now causing an uptick in cases and hospitalizations, beginning a second Omicron wave in BC.
COVID Model Projections - March 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their nineteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (March 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, BA.2, which is rising rapidly in frequency and now accounts for ~50% of infections in Canada. Nevertheless, numbers of BA.2 are roughly steady at the moment.
COVID Model Projections - February 17, 2022
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their eighteenth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (February 17th, 2022). This report focuses on the Omicron variant, which is spreading rapidly in Canada, even among those fully vaccinated. UPDATED: Information about the spread of BA.2 in Alberta has been removed because samples were first typed by PCR and BA.2 preferentially sequenced (causing publicly available data to overestimate the current frequency of BA.2).