COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-sixth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron continues to be dominated by BA.5* variants, particularly descendants like BQ.1* that carry many mutations that reduce antibody recognition. BQ.1* has risen to an estimated current frequency of 50% in BC and in Canada. Nevertheless, case numbers are rising and falling in a manner that depends less on these variants and more on population-level immunity and the waning of this immunity. This is good news, suggesting that population-level immunity is largely protective against BQ.1* as well.