Event-specific interventions to minimize COVID-19 transmission

Abstract

We provide a simple model of COVID-19 transmission at workplaces, events, and other settings. We use data from reported single-event, short-duration outbreaks to estimate the transmission rate, number of contacts, and turnover at events. We use these to predict how many new infections are expected to occur at various events given the presence of a single infectious individual. We then determine which types of interventions will be the most effective in reducing the number of infections: reducing transmission rates (such as with masks), social distancing (reducing the number of people in contact), or bubbling (keeping contact groups small and consistent).COVID-19 is a global pandemic with over 25 million cases worldwide. Currently, treatments are limited, and there is no approved vaccine. Interventions such as handwashing, masks, social distancing, and “social bubbles” are used to limit community transmission, but it is challenging to choose the best interventions for a given activity. Here, we provide a quantitative framework to determine which interventions are likely to have the most impact in which settings. We introduce the concept of “event R,” the expected number of new infections due to the presence of a single infectious individual at an event. We obtain a fundamental relationship between event R and four parameters: transmission intensity, duration of exposure, the proximity of individuals, and the degree of mixing. We use reports of small outbreaks to establish event R and transmission intensity in a range of settings. We identify principles that guide whether physical distancing, masks and other barriers to transmission, or social bubbles will be most effective. We outline how this information can be obtained and used to reopen economies with principled measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission.All study data are included in the article and SI Appendix.